TAPOL

Contents:

Ex Kopassus commander’s party has strong network, massive funds [29 October]
Gerindra, the party of retired General Prabowo Subianto, could pose a threat to the bigger parties if it gains strong support from the mass networks associated with the former commander of Kopassus and Kostrad according to a new study. The party also has strong financial support. [full story...]

Six parties short of female quota [1 November]
Women are unlikely to win many seats in next year's legislative elections as six parties [listed in full story] have fallen short of the 30 percent quota for female representation and many others have stuck their female candidates at the bottom of their pecking orders. The 30 percent female representation requirement was first introduced in the 2004 elections. However, only 62 women, or 11 percent of the winning candidates, secured House seats out of 550 on offer. [full story...]

Papuan parties threaten election boycott [1 November]
19 parties in Yahukimo have declared their intention to boycott the elections while 34 parties in Tolikara have threatened a boycott. They are also calling for the replacement of the chair of the local election commission, the KPUD . [full story...]

SBY-Kalla Popularity Rising: Survey [4 November]
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have a good chance of retaining their hold on power, with a recent survey showing their popularity rising ahead of next year's election. SBY achieved 33 percent support in the survey while his main rival Megawati Sukarnoputri dropped to 17.9 percent . [full story...]

Anti-pornography law: Naked Islamism [5 November]
Indonesia's multicultural society took another hit with the passage of a vaguely worded antipornography law. The law is opposed by non-Muslim minorities, women's groups and artists, who fear that it imposes strict standards on expression and behavior, as advocated by Islamic hardliners. The bill was pushed through by the Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) [presumably hoping to bolster its support among hardline Muslims in the run-up to the national elections]. Other politicians did not want to risk being labelled as pro-pornography ahead of the elections and only two mainstream political parties voiced opposition to the bill. [full story...]

Also: A Chilling New Anti-Obscenity Law in Indonesia [full story...]

Prabowo invites PKS into a coalition [5 November]
Former Kopassus commander, Prabowo Subianto, head of Gerindra has called on the PKS (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera) to enter into a coalition to support his presidential bid. A candidate for president requires support from 20 percent of DPR seats or 25 percent of the popular vote in the DPR elections. GOLKAR is expected to enter into a coalition again with Partai Demokrat to ensure that President Yudhoyono (SBY) and Jusuf Kalla can win a second term. [full story...]

Megawati may have the best chance [6 November]
An electoral commentator believes Megawati Sukarnoputri is a stronger presidential candidate than SBY because of the victories she has secured in recent local elections and surveys suggesting that her party will reach the required threshold of 20 percent of seats in the forthcoming parliamentary elections. SBY’s popularity rests on his personal standing, not his party’s, and his position could be weakened if he fails to get the support of GOLKAR. [full story...]

Control of electoral misdemeanours is unsatisfactory [6 November]
Several observers are afraid that the body set up to supervise the election, the Bawaslu, is not up to the task, and things could be worse than in 2004. [full story...]

Also ‘Unlawful sources of money being used for elections’ [full story...]

Judical review of presidential election law [6 November]
An application is being made to the Constitutional Court for a judicial review of the new law establishing the threshold required for a presidential nomination. Opinions are mixed about its likely chances of success. [full story...]

Giving up partisan politics
Indonesia’s biggest Muslim organisations, Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), which together claim the allegiance of more than 80 million Indonesian Muslims, have declared their political neutrality, retreating from their previous support for, respectively, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and National Mandate Party (PAN). [full story...]

Assessing the Sultan’s chances [12 November]
Despite uncertainty about the political support that Sultan might get from Golkar, his self-confidence in running for presidency in 2009 is not without foundation. He has gained the support of politicians, artists and academicians who have pledged to mobilize popular support for his nomination. But if he relies on the traditional influence of the country's nobility he is unlikely to be successful. [full story...]

PPP to support SBY-Kalla in 2009 presidential election [13 November]
The United Development Party (PPP) will support Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla (SBY-JK) in next year's presidential election, the party' supervisory board chairman said on Wednesday. "The SBY-JK pair is considered still eligible to lead the country for the next five years. The majority of party members support the pair," Bachtiar Chamzah told reporters. [full story...]

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Party of former Kopassus commander has strong network, massive funds

Sindo
October 29, 2008

Jakarta -- The results of research and a political study by Charta Politika (Political Charter) has revealed that the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) has three sources of strength to help it win the 2009 legislative elections.

Strong support for the Gerindra Party will come from the mass network and supporters of retired General Prabowo Subianto, who is also the chair of the advisory board to the party with the Garuda bird as its symbol. According to the Charta Politika Executive Director Bima Arya Sugiarto, there are five key sources of mass support that are directly headed by Subianto.

These five networks could become a permanent source of votes and at the same time a mass base of support for the Gerindra Party. The five networks include, among others, the Indonesia Farmers Association (HKTI), the National Farmers Mainstay Group (KTNA), the All Indonesia Association of Market Traders (APPSI), the Indonesian Pencak Silat Association (IPSI) and the Supersemar Foundation founded by the Subianto’s former father-in-law, the late President Suharto.

“If Gerindra is able to take care of these mass networks, it could become a threat, including for the big parties,” said Sugiarto said explaining the results of his research in Jakarta yesterday. Furthermore, according to Sugiarto, the second strength that the Gerindra Party has in addition to Subianto’s background as the head of these five strategic organisations, is as a businessperson and also his military experience as the former commander of the Army Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad) and the Army’s Special Forces (Kopassus).

The third strength for the Gerindra party is strong financial support, primarily coming out of Subianto’s own pocket. Among other positions that he holds, he is the CEO of Nusantara Energi, which has assets valued at US$1 billion. Nusantara Energi is active in the forestry, plantation, mining, fisheries, pulp and paper and professional services sectors.

The Charta Politika research also noted that there was financial support from Subianto’s brother Hashim Sujono, the owner of Nations Energy, which has assets valued at US$2.3 billion. According to Sugiarto, the popularity and support for the Gerindra Party will grow and be sustained if Gerindra is able to strengthen its advertising campaign through socialisation, strengthening the grassroots base and the party’s social networks.

The party must also be able to translate the big concepts about economic nationalism, food security and industry into issues that are local in character. Sugiarto also said that Subianto as an individual figure has a huge influence over the pace and popularity of the party and organisational networks that are both strong and extensive. “Not to mention the non-stop ‘air attacks’ or advertisements that are concrete and grounded”, he said.

Gerindra Deputy Chairperson Fadli Zon meanwhile said that Gerindra and Subianto are like two sides of a coin that cannot be separated. “It has to be admitted that without Prabowo, Gerindra’s pace [of growth] would be slow, but indeed it is preferable if voting for a party that it is packaged as one with its presidential candidate”, he said. (fahmi faisa)

[Translated by James Balowski]

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Six parties short of female quota

by Adianto P. Simamora
The Jakarta Post
Saturday, November 1, 2008

Women are unlikely to win many legislative seats in next year's legislative elections as six parties have fallen short of the female representation quota and many others have stuck their female candidates at the bottom of their pecking orders.

The final list of legislative candidates published by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on Friday shows that six parties fall short of the minimum 30 percent quota for female candidates.

The 2007 legislative elections law requires each political party to grant at least 30 percent of its legislative candidate seats to women.

The six that fell short of the requirement are the National Mandate Party (PAN), with a 29 percent female representation and the United Development Party (PPP) with a 28 percent female representation.

The National Concerned People's Party (PPRN) has 26 percent, the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) 29 percent, the My Republic Party 28 percent and the Patriotic Party 17 percent.

However, KPU member Endang Sulastri said her office could not impose any sanctions on the six parties as the threshold was not mandated by the elections law.

"The KPU is only required to announce the parties that fail to meet the minimum quota of 30 percent to the public but there should be no sanctions imposed on them," she said.

The KPU published the final list Friday, naming 11,225 legislative candidates from 38 parties who will contest next year's legislative elections.

The list was published in the Republika daily and was announced by state TV broadcaster TVRI.

Endang also said she was disappointed some parties had not ranked their female candidates high on their pecking orders to win seats at the House of Representatives.

"Many of these parties also place their female hopefuls at the bottom of their lists," she said.

She said the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) had only included two female candidates in their top groups to secure seats.

Some 215 of the PKS's nominees are female, while 221 of the PDI-P's 628 candidates are women.

"Nine parties have made less than 10 women level-one candidates," Endang said.

KPU data shows that of the total 11,225 legislative candidates, only 496 female nominees have been made level-one candidates and that 761 are level-two candidates.

The 30 percent female representation requirement was first introduced in the 2004 elections.

However, only 62 women, or 11 percent of the winning candidates, secured House seats out of 550 on offer.

Next year, the candidates will vie for 560 House seats.

The Center for Electoral Reform (Cetro) said though many parties had complied with the legislative quota for women, there was little hope many would win seats as they were ranked so low in their parties' pecking orders.

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Parties in Papua threaten to boycott election

Cenderawasih Pos, 1 November 2008

Wamena: While 19 parties in Yahukimo declared their intention to boycott the 2009 elections three days, there are now 34 parties in Tolikara who are also threatening a boycott. The 34 parties have also called for the replacement fof the chairman of the local election commission, the KPUD who they accused of not being transparent and professional in the performance of his official duties. They accuse him of siding with one of the parties.

Amerson Wenda who chairs the All-Papua Forum accused him of supporting one of the parties and said that he should be replaced before the final list of candidates for the parliamentary election is announced.

Amerson also complained that the supervisory commission, Panwaslu, has not yet been set up and this should happen immediately.

However, the chairman of the KPUD has strongly denied that he has been involved in the activities of one of the parties.

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SBY-Kalla Popularity Rising: Survey

by Abdul Khalik
The Jakarta Post
Tuesday, November 4, 2008

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla have a good chance of retaining their hold on power, with a recent survey showing their popularity rising ahead of next year's election.

Responding to the results of the survey by the Indonesian Research and Development Institute (IRDI), the Golkar Party's deputy secretary-general Rully Chairul Azwar admitted only two candidates had viable chances of victory in 2009, and neither was from Golkar.

"We must be realistic that the election will come down to a duel between SBY and Megawati," he said, referring to Yudhoyono and Megawati Soekarnoputri, chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), during the survey launch here Monday.

The IRDI survey, conducted in October, listed Yudhoyono as the most popular likely presidential candidate, with 33 percent of 2,000 respondents in 33 provinces backing him. He overtook archrival Megawati, whose popularity dropped to 17.9 percent. The gap was narrower last July after Yudhoyono's administration raised fuel prices in May.

Other candidates trailed far behind the top two, with Wiranto and Prabowo Subianto leading the rest of the contenders with 5 percent and 4.7 percent respectively.

In the vice presidential race, 15.2 percent of respondents chose Kalla as the most suitable partner for Yudhoyono, followed by People's Consultative Assembly Speaker Hidayat Nur Wahid and Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X with 9.4 percent and 7.4 percent respectively.

Rully, a close Kalla aide, said although Golkar would name its presidential candidate after the April 9, 2009, legislative elections, it would remain pragmatic about Kalla's running with Yudhoyono.

He acknowledged there were strong demands by Golkar faithfuls for the party to nominate its own presidential candidate rather than settle for a vice presidential nominee.

"We have to deal with the pressure. The demand for Golkar to have a presidential candidate stems from an old paradigm when there was no tool to measure the candidates' chances. Now we have surveys, we can test if a candidate is marketable or not," Rully said.

Anas Urbaningrum, deputy chairman of Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, said the presidential election would likely be a repeat of the 2004 showdown between Yudhoyono and Megawati.

With the House of Representatives setting a threshold for a party or coalition of parties to be able to nominate a presidential candidate at 20 percent of seats or 25 percent of votes, political observers say Yudhoyono needs an alliance with Golkar to secure his ticket for reelection, with his Democratic Party predicted to win only 8 percent of votes and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) distancing itself from him.

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Naked Islamism

Editorial,The Wall Street Journal Asia
Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Indonesia's multicultural society took another hit last week with the passage of a vaguely worded antipornography law.

The new law had been under debate for a decade and is opposed by non-Muslim minorities, women's groups and artists, who fear that it imposes strict standards on expression and behavior, as advocated by Islamic hardliners. Under this law, any photograph, writing, conversation or gesture can be criminalized as "pornography" if it "incites obscenity" or "violates moral ethics in the community." Offenders can be imprisoned up to 10 years and fined up to $475,000.

The new law doesn't fill any legal gap; Indonesia already outlaws pornography in its penal code. Rather, it represents a political victory for hardline Islamist parties such as the Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which backed the bill and organized street rallies in Jakarta to support its passage.

PKS was smart to push for the bill's passage now. When it was raised for discussion in September, PKS positioned it as a gift to Muslims during the holy festival of Ramadan. Ahead of national elections next year, no politician wants to risk being labeled as pro-pornography in a Muslim-majority nation. Only two mainstream political parties -- the Democratic Party of Struggle and the Christian Prosperous Peace Party -- voiced opposition to the bill, refusing to vote on it last week.

PKS had earlier compromised by exempting cultural traditions as well as foreign tourists, allaying concerns about the future of Bali's $5.3 billion tourism industry. That is, bikinis won't be banned on Bali's beaches -- just so long as Indonesian women aren't wearing them.

Yet the potential damage extends to Indonesia's tolerant society as a whole. Article 4 criminalizes "appearances that border on nudity" -- that is, any show of flesh can be a possible violation. Article 20 allows the public to play a role in "preventing the production, distribution and use of pornography" -- which is to say that anyone, not just the police, can take action. This may encourage Islamic vigilante groups.

Human rights groups fear the new bill is another instance of Shariah law creep. Non-Muslim provinces such as Bali and North Sulawesi, which view the new law as a threat to pluralism, have threatened to not enforce it.

The bill can still be challenged before the country's Constitutional Court. We hope Indonesians will do so.

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A Chilling New Anti-Obscenity Law in Indonesia

Asia Sentinel
November 3, 2008

The House of Representatives pushes through an overly broad bill that could energize Islamic fundamentalists even more.

Will Indonesia's dangdut, the drilling dance made famous by the gyrating behind of Inul Daratista, swivel its way into history as a result of the harsh and sweeping anti-pornography bill passed by the House of Representatives last week?

Analysts and critics are warning that the bill will embolden the country's already-unswerving Muslim fundamentalists, endanger cultural unity and lead to vigilantism. Its passage came on the same day that Jakarta's Central District Court sentenced two leaders of the hardline Islamic Defenders Front to what critics termed a slap on the wrist. Although prosecutors had asked for harsher sentences, they were given 18 months in jail each for their roles in inciting violence against spectators in a June pro-tolerance rally.

More than 1,500 police were required to guard the courtroom, which was thronged with FPI supporters. Hundreds more adherents milled outside the court.

"The (anti-pornography) law is very, very problematic. I fear the consequences at the grass-roots level," said Umi Farida, the coordinator of the Women's Partnership Network, a coalition of organizations that monitored deliberations on the bill and opposed its passage.

The bill was passed nonetheless amid pandemonium in the House of Representatives, with the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, walking out after the faction's head, Tjahjo Kumolo, declared his party's objection to its provisions. In the galleries, both supporters and opponents of the bill shouted their endorsements or objections in an increasingly tense standoff.

Although the law originated with the fast-growing Islamist Prosperous Justice Party, it gets its clout from the once-staunchly secular nationalist parties, particularly the ruling Democrat Party and Golkar, which has the most seats in the House. Although Golkar is a secular party, its leaders, particularly Vice President Yusuf Kalla, see advantage in identifying with the fundamentalists as a method of diverting attention from the party's endemic corruption.

Thus, it is also emblematic of the power struggle between the mostly Muslim Javanese, who have the run of Indonesian politics, and the more moderate provinces, particularly the much more tolerant Balinese, who are largely Hindu, as well as North Sulawesi, and the myriad islands east of Lombok. The passage also puts the President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in a difficult position. Since its founding in 1945, the country has been ruled by a kind of nebulous philosophy called Pancasila, or five principles: belief in a single god, Indonesian unity, "just and civilized humanity," democracy and social justice. Although 95 percent of its people are Muslims, the concept of a single god is meant to accord equal footing to all religions.

In recent years, however, there has been growing concern that this kind of tolerance is starting to fray. The de facto national anthem, Dari Sabang sumpai Merauke ("from Sabang to Merauke, the extreme tips of the archipelago) is increasingly looked upon as an unrealistic picture of the unity of the country.

Given the vague nature of some of the bill's provisions, many fear its implementation could become a cultural and religious battleground. In the bill, for example, "sexual harassment" is cited as pornography but is not fully defined. "Nudity or appearances that give an impression of nudity" are off limits. Anyone who is a "model" for pornography could also be punished with a lengthy prison term and a fine, a definition that would seem to include fine arts models. Already artists have begun to worry that their gallery exhibitions may be cancelled or they may find it harder to work in Indonesia as a result of the law.

So where, for instance, does that leave the famed Inul Daratista, (the Girl with the Breasts in Indonesian), who is wildly popular in Jakarta, making up to Rp70 million for a single 45-minute performance rotating her backside feverishly in clinging pants. It is safe to say that Inul is to Indonesia what Jennifer Lopez is to the United States. She had already stirred the concerns of the Council of Indonesian Ulama, a government-sanctioned group of mullahs although ironically she considers herself a devout Muslim. Women's groups rallied behind her, however, and the former president, Abdurrahman Wahid, declared that her dancing should be protected as an art form. Inul became the best paid entertainer in the country. Will her dancing continued to be regarded as an art form, or will it be categorized under Article 36 of the law, which states that "Any person who exhibits themselves or others in a performance…that contains nudity, sexual exploitation, coital acts or other pornographic content shall be punished with a maximum prison term of 10 years and/or a fine not to exceed Rp5 billion?"

Perhaps the biggest question posed by the law, however, is that its language appears to give a role not only to the central and local governments in "preventing the making, distribution and use of pornography," but "society" as well. Although the law says popular action must be in line with the rule of law, "It does not guarantee that the implementation would not incite conflict at the grass roots level," Umi said.

There is a new kind of culture in Jakarta and other cities themselves, of moderate, modern Muslims who are happy to dress and act in ways the Islamists consider provocative. Already the followers of the Islamic Defenders Front routinely harass moderates and accuse women of prostitution who merely travel alone at night. The concern is that the FPI will consider the legislation a hunting license in a newly opened season on moderates. Ironically, the rally that was broken up by the followers of the now-jailed Muhammad Rizieq Shuibab and Munarman was organized by the National Alliance for the Freedom of Faith and Religion to celebrate the 63rd anniversary of Pancasila. About a dozen pro-tolerance activists were injured in the attack, three seriously.

Umi Farida pointed out that the FPI have been involved in the destruction of bars, night clubs and even artworks that they deem to be at odds with their interpretation of Islam. At times, they have actually taken "polluting" foreigners from bars directly to the airport

University of Indonesia political scientist Eep Syaifullah Fatah worries that the law could endanger Indonesia's prized cultural diversity. Well beyond Inul and the modernists, women still bathe bare-breasted in the rivers and creeks of Bali. Men in Papua New Guinea still wear penis gourds. Both are longstanding ethnic practices going back hundreds, if not thousands of years.

"The law has the potential to provoke disintegration," Fatah said, referring to the strong opposition raised in a number of provinces, Umi said that her organization actually supported the law initially but later grew disillusioned after learning that it could do more harm than good. "The law discriminates against certain people," she said, referring to a section that labels homosexuality "a deviation" from social norms.

Provisions of the Bill

Article 29 Any person who manufactures, produces, duplicates, reduplicates, distributes, broadcasts, imports, exports, makes for sale, trades in, leases or makes available pornography shall be punished with a prison term of 6 months to 12 years and/or a fine of Rp250 million or Rp6 billion.

Article 30 Any person who makes available pornography …shall be punished with a prison term of 6 years and/or a fine of Rp250 million to Rp6 billion

Article 31 Any person who loans or downloads pornography…shall be punished with a maximum prison term of 4 years and/or a fine not to exceed Rp2 billion

Article 32 Any person who exhibits, possesses or stores pornography shall be punished with a maximum prison term of 4 years and/or a fine not to exceed Rp2 billion

Article 34 Any person who consents to be a pornographic object or model shall be punished with a maximum prison term of 10 years and/or a fine not to exceed Rp5 billion

Article 36 Any person who exhibits themselves or others in a performance…that contains nudity, sexual exploitation, coital acts or other pornographic content shall be punished with a maximum prison term of 10 years and/or a fine not to exceed Rp5 billion.

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Prabowo invites PKS into a coalition

SINDO, 5 November 2008

Former commander of Kopassus, Prabowo who is now head of Gerindra has called on the PKS (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera) to enter into a coalition to support his bid to become president. He said they were in talks with the PKS whose support was needed bearing in mind that the law requires that a candidate for president requires support from 20% of seats or 25% of the votes.

Prabowo said that they were also approaching other parties about a coalition. He has also had talks with other top political leaders but would not name them. The law on the threshold for a presidential candidate made it essential to work with other parties to obtain the necessary backing.

GOLKAR is expected to enter into a coalition again with Partai Demokrat to ensure that SBY and Jusuf Kalla can win a second term, whereas the PDI-P is expected to be able to to get the backing of 20% of seats to support the candidacy of Megawati.

But a central axis of parties such as the PKS. PAN, PKB and possibly the PPP could form a coalition., with Prabowo also making coalition approaches. The secretary-general of the PKS, Anis Matta said they were open to all kinds of coalitions with any other party, and also were now in communication with Gerindra, though this was still very tentative.

Earlier on, the PDI-P also offered a coalition with the PKS as well as with GOLKAR..

The executive director of Indo Barometer, Muhammad Qodari said the chances of building a central axis are very good. 'It is very likely that an alternative candidate will appear to challenge SBY and Megawati.'

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Megawati's chance are the best

SINDO, 6 November 2008

According to the director executive of the Reform Institute Yudi Latif, Megawati Sukarnputri is a more solid presidential candidate than the present incumbent. He sees her political machine as most adequately fulfilling the criteria under the presidential election law. This assessment is based on the number of victories scored by her party in recent local elections, and recent surveys suggesting that her party will reach the threshold of 20% of seats in the forthcoming parliamentary election. She need not fear the fact that her personal electability is at present below that of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Furthermore, as the popularity of her party has grown, her personal popularity has also grown apace.As for SBY, his popularity rests solely on his personal popularity, not on his party's.

Yudi also said that if her party is able to further enhance its reputation, other major parties will support it, as they are all driven by pragmatic considerations. SBY's position could be weakened if he fails to get the support of GOLKAR as this could deprive him of the chance of even getting nominated.

The chairman of the advisory council of the PDI-P, Taufiq Kiemas, said that the alternative presidential candidate least likely to reach the threshold is SBY because his party is less likely to reach the threshold. While SBY benefits from his frequent appearances in the press, many of the PDI-P 's local chairmen are local government chiefs. Added to this is the fact that the party's machinery is solidly behind Megawati.

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Control of electoral misdemeanours is unsatisfactory.

SINDO, 6 November 2008

Several observers are afraid that the body set up to supervise the election, the Bawaslu, is not up to the task, and things could be worse than in 2004. In 2004, the Bawaslu included police and prosecution officials so they could coordinate their activities, but the present body does not include such officials.

Bambang Widjoyanto, a lawyer, said that neither the KPU nor the Panwaslu have achieved the necessary capacity whereas one of the deciding factors in upholding the law is the effectiveness of these bodies.

'There are more parties this time and the system of recruiting candidates has not been good so the chances of misdemeanours occurring is much greater.'

Another observer from the National Law Reform Consortium said that the problem was that there were still problems with the Election Law itself: it states that suspicions of misdemeanours must be passed on to the Panwaslu but it fails to stipulate how investigations should take place or by whom. For instance, the law specifies that reports of misdemeanours must be sent to the police without specifying which police force. The same problem applies to misdemeanours that may occur abroad, with no clarity about the investigation body which should handle this.

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Unlawful sources of money being used for elections

SINDO, 6 November 2008

The election supervisory body, Bawaslu, has raised its concerns about the flow of unlawful funds for the 2009 elections. A commission member said that there were indications that laundered money was being used.

'It is possible that laundered money is being used and that is illegal,', said Nur Hidayat Sardini, chairman of Bawaslu.

He said that this money could be coming from individuals or corporate bodies and could be money obtained through corruption, deception, laundering or other criminal activities.

He said that Bawaslu does not have the authority to investigate accounts which may include laundered money and has therefore passed on information about this to PPATK, the Centre for Analysis of Monetary Transactions. He hopes that in collaboration with that agency, it will be possible to halt the use of illegal funds. This could ensure that the elections in 2009 will deliver unblemished people who have not used unlawful funds to finance their campaign. He said that lessons should be learned from the way illegal funds were used during the 2004 elections.

He mentioned the case of money which had come from the Department of Marine Affairs and Fisheries which was headed at the time by Rokhmin Dahuri. it was later discovered that funds from that ministry were used for the purposes of campaigning. 'It was strange that hundreds of millions of rupiahs had come from the minister bearing in mind that a minister only earns Rp20 million.' He said it was necessary for Bawaslu to have the powers to request that a report on such matters could be passed on to PPATK for furthering consideration. 'If any party refuses to allow this, it will damage its adherence to the principle of transparency regarding its campaigning funds,' he said.

He said that anyone giving or receiving illegal funds should be given the maximum punishment.

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Judicial review of presidential election law

SINDO, 6 November 2008

Amien Rais (a former chairman of the MPR) has predicted that a judicial review lodged with the Constitution Court regarding the law on the presidential election will fail. He thought that the Court would be likely to ask, how is it possible that you have taken part in adopting the law and now you want it to be amended.

He himself however regretted the fact that the law fixed the threshold at 20% of seats or 25% of votes and thought that this would restrict the chances of potential leaders coming forward onto the political arena. 'I can well understand that our younger friends were shocked to see how this could happen in the era of reformasi with a law that restricts people by law (from nominating candidates),' said Amien.

The recent US elections had initially started with a number of candidates, but finally only two remained.

On the other hand, Refli Harun of the Centre for Electoral Reform believes that there is a good chance that the Constitutional Court will agree to the judicial review because those lodging the complaint have a strong case. He said that the threshold as now set is in violation of Article 9 of the presidential election law. He hoped that other parties would also join with those lodging the judicial review.

The 1945 Constitution [as amended] clearly states that political parties have the right to nominate candidates; provided that the parties in question have been formally registered to participate in the election, they have the constitutional right to nominate people for President.

'It is wrong to impose a threshold that damages the right of parties. The argument that the threshold will produce a strong government and will be a cost-cutting measure is not substantive enough.

Other parties have added their voices in support of the complaint.

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Giving up partisan politics?

by Eunsook Jung
Inside Indonesia 94: Oct-Dec 2008

After the fall of the Suharto regime, Indonesia’s biggest Muslim organisations Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) decided to get involved in party politics. NU formed the National Awakening Party (PKB), while Amien Rais, then head of Muhammadiyah, established the National Mandate Party (PAN).

As the two organisations between them claim the allegiance of more than 80 million Indonesian Muslims, many Indonesians expected that PKB and PAN would dominate the post-Suharto political landscape. But two election cycles later, PKB and PAN remain relatively minor players. In response to their electoral failure, both organisations have declared formal neutrality. Muhammadiyah, which never threw its full institutional support behind PAN, has retreated even further and NU no longer endorses PKB.

The move to neutrality reflects many ordinary members’ disappointment with their experience of politics. But neutrality only goes so far. Neither organisation has been able to prevent its leaders from seeking elected positions at all levels of politics. And the refusal to endorse any one party has meant that multiple parties now court NU and Muhammadiyah. In fact, as a member of Muhammadiyah’s central board recently commented, visits from political parties now outnumber meetings with any other type of organisations in Muhammadiyah’s guestbook.

The path into politics
In the heyday of reformasi, NU and Muhammadiyah hoped that their large membership would bring electoral victory for their parties – and with it the prize of the presidency for one of their own. These hopes were soon dashed. The results of the 1999 elections made it clear that neither organisation had been able to get its members to support a single party. PKB received 13.3 million votes (12.6 per cent) whereas PAN attained 7.5 million votes (7.0 per cent), finishing a disappointing third and fifth.

Not that all of the early news was bad. Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) won the most votes in the 1999 election, and she expected that she would be chosen as president. But Abdurrahman Wahid, then the chairperson of NU, outmaneuvered her, forming alliances both with a coalition of Muslim parties and even with sections of PDI-P itself. Wahid won the indirect vote for president, defeating Megawati by 373 to 313.

But five years later, little had changed in the 2004 parliamentary elections, when only 10.6 per cent of voters chose PKB and 6.4 per cent of voters supported PAN. Muhammadiyah also failed to deliver the support of its members to Amien Rais in the 2004 presidential election, by then a direct popular vote. Rais received only 17 million votes, far fewer than the organisation’s total membership. According to opinion polls, the popularity of both PKB and PAN continues to wane as the 2009 elections approach.

But it is not just the modest performance at the polls that has left NU and Muhammadiyah disappointed. Both organisations have come to feel marginalised within the parties that they helped to create. When it was launched in 1998, PKB was supposed to be an NU party, but over time Abdurrahman Wahid came to treat it as his own personal fiefdom. He fired anyone who was against him, and left NU feeling that its institutional interests were being ignored. The Islamic religious scholars who helped to build up PKB now complain that Abdurrahman Wahid no longer listens to them, so they don’t feel like supporting PKB anymore.

The already deteriorating relationship between NU and PKB was damaged further when the head of NU, Hasyim Muzadi, ran for the vice presidency in 2004 as a candidate for the rival Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P). Wahid panned Muzadi’s ultimately unsuccessful candidature, accusing Muzadi of taking advantage of NU for his own political gain.

Although Muhammadiyah never provided full institutional support to PAN, many Muhammadiyah members had joined the party in the hope of winning office. But to have a realistic chance of being elected, candidates needed to be high on the party’s list on the ballot form, as seats were allocated based on the order in which the party had placed its candidates.

PAN refused to give Muhammadiyah members priority positions on its list of candidates in 2004, so few were elected. This caused the informal links between Muhammadiyah and PAN to start to break down. As with NU, many Muhammadiyah members came to view partisan politics as unreliable and unrewarding.

As a result of these developments, party politics had become a liability for both NU and Muhammadiyah. Their lobbying power was limited by the small share of seats that PAN and PKB received in the parliament. Being committed to a single party also made it harder for them to criticise the government’s policies or performance because it left them open to accusations that they were pushing their affiliated parties’ agenda. In the meantime, some members of NU and Muhammadiyah found it advantageous to be members of other major parties such as Golkar, PDI-P, or the United Development Party (PPP). If they are only committed to PKB and PAN, NU and Muhammadiyah as organizations cannot enjoy the fruits of having its members assume leadership positions in other political parties.

Giving up partisan politics is hard
As a result, Muhammadiyah and NU put a policy of neutrality into place. The stated goal of this policy was to facilitate the organisations’ departure from partisan politics. But in practice, it has led to greater engagement of individuals in the political arena. Muhammadiyah and NU may now be officially neutral, but neither organisation has genuinely disengaged. There are strong incentives to remain involved in politics, both as organisations and for individual members.

As organisations, NU and Muhammadiyah like to maintain access to a range of political parties because they derive specific benefits from those links. Through their party connections, each organisation can lobby for an increased share of the annual national budget. They also expect legislators to introduce laws and regulations to support their educational and health activities, or to help get NU and Muhammadiyah members appointed to government positions.

As individuals, many NU and Muhammadiyah leaders harbour personal political ambitions. In violation of the neutrality policy, NU leaders have continued to run in mayoral and gubernatorial elections, and sometimes have even competed against each other in the same poll. In the June 2008 election for governor of Central Java, four NU candidates ran against each other. They split the NU vote and none of them were elected. A month later, four more prominent NU figures ran as part of rival candidate pairs in the election for governor of East Java, including Kofifah Inda Parawansa, the head of the women’s wing of Nahdlatul Ulama, Muslimat NU, and Saifullah Yusuf, the national head of the NU youth organisation Ansor. No pair received more than 30 per cent of the votes, meaning a run-off will be held in November. This time an NU figure will definitely be elected, as both Yusuf’s and Kofifah’s tickets made the run-off.

Organisations associated with Muhammadiyah are also getting on the political band wagon. In an interview, the head of Muhammadiyah’s youth organisation claimed that 75 per cent of the organisation’s board members are engaged in partisan politics in direct defiance of the Muhammadiyah decree that board members of any of Muhammadiyah’s organisations must not occupy positions within political parties. Left with no choice, Muhammadiyah finally responded to this situation by allowing its youth members to continue their involvement in politics on the condition that they don’t bring partisan issues to Muhammadiyah.

Even the head of Muhammadiyah is tempted by politics. Many observers expect that Din Syamsuddin will run for the vice presidency in 2009. So far, Din has not responded to frequent questions on his possible candidacy, but he would be likely to run if a presidential candidate with a good chance of winning were to approach him.

Staying influential
Adopting formal neutrality was a return to their founding principles for Muhammadiyah and NU, and both organisations insist the policy is here to stay. But each time the leaders of these organisations run for office it undermines the credibility of the policy, and damages the religious community’s cohesiveness. To remain politically relevant under the neutrality policy, each organisation needs to find a way to unite their members’ voices whenever necessary. If they cannot, NU and Muhammadiyah may need to find a new strategy to maintain political influence.

Eunsook Jung (eunsookjung@gmail.com) is a PhD candidate in the department of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

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Assessing Sultan's chances in 2009 election

by Aleksius Jemadu, Bandung
Op-Ed, The Jakarta Post
Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Self-promotion in front of the public is not a desirable attribute according to Javanese royal tradition. The fact that Yogyakarta Governor Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X has declared his readiness to run in the upcoming election invites various comments from our society.

Some people enthusiastically welcome Hamengkubuwono's bid for the presidency on the grounds that he has the capacity to strengthen the unity of the country which is currently under threat from primordialism and sectarianism. The Yogyakarta governor deliberately chose Youth Pledge Day (Oct. 28) as the crucial moment for announcing his nomination in order to show his nationalistic credentials. Other people have a different view and have developed a critical assessment of his real chance to succeed in 2009.

There is no doubt that Sultan, along with Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Amien Rais played pitoval roles in forcing Soeharto to step down in May 1998. Among the four, however it is only Sultan who has not had an opportunity to hold a state position. Amien served in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) from Oct. 1999 to Sept. 2004. Gus Dur was president from Oct. 1999 to July 2001, before being replaced by Vice President Megawati. Megawati served as president until Sept. 2004.

Sultan has been active in promoting democratization in Indonesia. Unlike many other traditional monarchs, he does not want to perpetuate any kind of feudalistic privilege that normally goes with the royal status of Javanese kings. However, to succeed in the presidential election one needs more than just democratic or nationalistic credentials.

There are various factors which will determine the success of any presidential candidate in 2009. The question is: Can we make an objective assessment of Sultan's sources of strength and his weaknesses so that he or his supporters might have a reasonable judgement before entering the battlefield?

Most, if not all, presidential candidates capitalize on their political parties as their political machine to mobilize popular support. As far as Sultan is concerned, it is not yet clear which political party or coalition he will use in order to be legally eligible as a presidential candidate. The final answer to this question will be fixed after the 2009 legislative election.

For the time being, we can only guess his strategy on the basis of existing conditions. So far the Golkar Party, to which Sultan is affiliated, has not nominated any presidential candidate. Some factions and regional branches of Golkar have expressed their intention to nominate Sultan for presidency in 2009.

As chairman of Golkar, Vice President Jusuf Kalla has allowed any member of his party -- including Sultan -- to run for president in the upcoming election. However, under Jusuf Kalla's chairmanship it is very unlikely that Golkar will nominate Sultan as its presidential candidate.

There is a high probability that if Golkar wins enough popular votes in the legislative election it will nominate Jusuf Kalla as its only presidential candidate. Otherwise, Jusuf Kalla will maintain the status quo by which he would run with incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as candidate for vice president. Thus, in terms of the use of a political party as the basis of political power, Sultan's nomination remains problematic to say the least. He cannot avoid the constraint stemming from an internal competition within Golkar which is going to be quite tough given the fact that there are some factions which are not satisfied with Jusuf Kalla's ambitious leadership.

Despite the uncertainty of the political support that Sultan could get from Golkar, his self-confidence in running for presidency in 2009 is not without foundation. When Sultan held a great meeting (pisowanan agung) in Yogyakarta he invited traditional kings from all parts of the archipelago. The meeting was also attended by politicians, artists and academicians who pledged to mobilize popular support for Sultan's nomination.

It remains to be seen how effective his organization of political support will be in 2009. If he indeed relies on the
traditional influence of the country's nobility he should be prepared to face the worst scenario. Why?

In this globalized world the Indonesian people are increasingly in favor of those with achieved status and cynically look down on those with ascribed status. In other words, because of modernization our society has become increasingly merit-based in their social and political attitudes.

On top of that, some of the noble families have damaged their royal reputations through various kinds of indecent behavior. Internal conflicts triggered by scrambles for royal properties are also widespread. If that is the case then it is very unlikely that they will be successful in winning the sympathy of the public.

The writer is a professor teaching at Department of International Relations of UNPAR Bandung. He lived in Yogyakarta 1981 -- 1986.

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PPP to support incumbent pair in 2009 presidential election

by Andi Hajramuni, Makassar
The Jakarta Post [website]
Thursday, November 13, 2008

The United Development Party (PPP) will support Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla (SBY-JK) in next year's presidential election, the party' supervisory board chairman said on Wednesday.

"The SBY-JK pair is considered still eligible to lead the country for the next five years. The majority of party members support the pair," Bachtiar Chamzah told reporters.

However, the party would need to confirm its support for the pair in a national congress, said Bachtiar who is also the Social Services Minister.

"Nevertheless, the party must be realistic. We have decent, smart and good cadres (for presidential candidates), but we have to prioritize the national interest," Bachtiar said.

The SBY-JK pair has made significant developments for the country's poor -- including the free health care program, the direct assistance scheme and increased education budget – and are expected to make more progress in the future, he said. (dre)

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